Mortality in GOLD stages of COPD and its dependence on symptoms of chronic bronchitis

BACKGROUND The GOLD classification of COPD severity introduces a stage 0 (at risk) comprising individuals with productive cough and normal lung function. The aims of this study were to investigate total mortality risks in GOLD stages 0-4 with special focus on stage 0, and furthermore to assess the influence of symptoms of chronic bronchitis on mortality risks in GOLD stages 1-4. METHOD Between 1974 and 1992, a total of 22,044 middle-aged individuals participated in a health screening, which included a spirometry as well as recording of respiratory symptoms and smoking habits. Individuals with comorbidity at baseline (diabetes, stroke, cancer, angina pectoris, or heart infarction) were excluded from the analyses. Hazard ratios (HR 95% CI) of total mortality were analyzed in GOLD stages 0-4 with individuals with normal lung function and without symptoms of chronic bronchitis as a reference group. HR:s in smoking individuals with symptoms of chronic bronchitis within the stages 1-4 were calculated with individuals with the same GOLD stage but without symptoms of chronic bronchitis as reference. RESULTS The number of deaths was 3,674 for men and 832 for women based on 352,324 and 150,050 person-years respectively. The proportion of smokers among men was 50% and among women 40%. Self reported comorbidity was present in 4.6% of the men and 6.6% of the women. Among smoking men, Stage 0 was associated with an increased mortality risk, HR: 1.65 (1.32-2.08), of similar magnitude as in stage 2, HR: 1.41 (1.31-1.70). The hazard ratio in stage 0 was significantly higher than in stage 1; HR: 1.13 (0.98-1.29). Among male smokers with stage 1; HR: 2.04 (1.34-3.11), and among female smokers with stage 2 disease; HR: 3.16 (1.38-7.23), increased HR:s were found in individuals with symptoms of chronic bronchitis as compared to those without symptoms of chronic bronchitis. CONCLUSION Symptoms fulfilling the definition of chronic bronchitis were associated with an increased mortality risk among male smokers with normal pulmonary function (stage 0) and also with an increased risk of death among smoking individuals with mild to moderate COPD (stage 1 and 2).